Tuesday, November 13, 2007

Delegate Math

Following up on my post from yesterday, the Giuliani campaign has posted an article from the AP showing why Rudy doesn't need to win the early states to perform well in the primary. Money quote:
--Giuliani has wide leads in bigger states with more delegates, such as Florida (57 delegates), California (173), New York (101), New Jersey (52) and Illinois (70). He’s expected to capture Connecticut (30) and Delaware (18), too. He campaigned Monday in Missouri (58), another big prize whose senior senator, four-term Republican Kit Bond, recently endorsed Giuliani.

--Even where he doesn’t win on Feb. 5, Giuliani could still come in second and win delegates. Big states in this category might include Georgia (72), Alabama (48) or Tennessee (55). Only a few— New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware and Missouri among them --award delegates on a winner-take-all basis.

--States voting after Feb. 5, including Maryland (37), Ohio (88) and Pennsylvania (74), also hold potential for Giuliani to roll up most or some of the delegates.

Giuliani has a good shot at winning an early state or two as well. He has gained ground on former Massachusetts Gov. Romney in New Hampshire (12 delegates), where Giuliani ranks second in polls, and has battled Thompson for the lead in South Carolina (24). …

Using either strategy--momentum or simple math--Giuliani’s campaign wagers it can win.

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