So I took the Implicit Association Test from Harvard University today, which is designed to use your mental reflexes to rank the remaining presidential candidates in either a positive or negative light. Not surprisingly, in my results, Huckabee was ranked on top, followed by McCain, then Obama, and all the way at the bottom, Hillary. These results pretty much mirror my results from this online candidate selector, which had Huckabee at 68%, McCain at 55%, Obama at 18%, and Hillary at 10%. The interesting thing about the latter results is that it is generally viewed that Obama is more liberal than Hillary, and he was, in fact, rated as having the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate last year. But according to the quiz, there are a few (and I mean "few") issues that we do agree on: (1) we favor allowing churches to provide welfare services; (2) we favor a means in which illegal immigrants could earn citizenship (though I'm sure we disagree on the means); and (3) we agree that drug laws should be enforced. As for Hillary, we agree on the first two items, though supposedly not on the third issue concerning drugs. Granted, none of these issues are make-or-break issues for me, but still interesting that a hard-core conservative like me slightly agrees with Obama more than Hillary.
As for the Harvard test, it measures likeability more than one's preference on the issues, and in that contest between Obama and Hillary, Obama wins in a landslide. And while I like McCain, there's no question that Huckabee is the more affable of the two, IMHO.
Showing posts with label Presidential Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Presidential Primary. Show all posts
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Criticism of DNC's "Superdelegates"
With the prospect of a brokered Dem Convention seeming increasingly likely this year (especially after Obama went three for three yesterday in states as different as Louisiana, Washington, and Nebraska), Chris Bowers, an Obama supporter, indicates that he would quit the Dem party if the "superdelegates" don't vote for whom "the majority (or plurality) of its participants in primaries and caucuses want it to nominate" at the convention. Out of fairness to the Clinton campaign, he also advocates that the delegates from Florida and Michigan should be allowed to vote at the convention, which would give her a few more delegates.
I can understand Bowers' frustration with the process, but this is not an argument to put forward now if you're an Obama fan. According to the latest CNN vote totals, Hillary has received just over 420,000 more votes than Obama when the vote tallies from Florida and Michigan are included. RealClearPolitics currently has Hillary having 3 more delegates than Obama, though that's without Florida and Michigan given that they won't have delegates seated at the convention at this time (though the DNC could change its minds on that decision), and the RCP polling national polling average has her beating Obama by 2.9%. However, Obama now has the momentum in this race and should continue to do well this month in states like ME (which is today, though this is the only race that I think is still "up in the air" left this month, given no current polls and New England having gone for Hillary thus far despite the Kennedy's), the VA-MD-DC trifecta on 2/12, WI (which usually votes similar to IA), and HI (where he grewup).
Yet, despite all this, what if Obama can't close the 400K voter gap, or there remains a razor thin delegate margin in June? Even though there is a lot of criticism against superdelegates, the fact is that we do not hold a national primary in this country. Instead, we have primary voters going to the polls during a six month period, during which they learn more about the candidates and make a decision at the time that they vote. And even when they vote, they're not voting for a particular candidate, but for the delegates to represent them at the convention, which is held more than eight months after the first caucus/primary contest. Because of this, I think it's very premature for an Obama supporter to say that he'd "quit the party" if the superdelegates don't support the "will of the people," because it's hard to claim a "will of the people" in the primary process. How many people who've already voted in the primary now regret their decision? What if something new transpires, or a scandal is revealed, against the "favored candidate" before the convention? Should the superdelegates vote for the candidate who received a plurality of the vote, or has a slight lead in delegates, then? And let's say that Hillary still has a slight lead in the vote total and delegate count then, but polls still show that the more liberal senator from Illinois has a better shot against McCain than Hillary, and the superdelegates decide that it's better for the party to nominate Obama in such circumstances? I'm sure under the latter scenario, Mr. Bowers would be singing a much different tune...
I can understand Bowers' frustration with the process, but this is not an argument to put forward now if you're an Obama fan. According to the latest CNN vote totals, Hillary has received just over 420,000 more votes than Obama when the vote tallies from Florida and Michigan are included. RealClearPolitics currently has Hillary having 3 more delegates than Obama, though that's without Florida and Michigan given that they won't have delegates seated at the convention at this time (though the DNC could change its minds on that decision), and the RCP polling national polling average has her beating Obama by 2.9%. However, Obama now has the momentum in this race and should continue to do well this month in states like ME (which is today, though this is the only race that I think is still "up in the air" left this month, given no current polls and New England having gone for Hillary thus far despite the Kennedy's), the VA-MD-DC trifecta on 2/12, WI (which usually votes similar to IA), and HI (where he grewup).
Yet, despite all this, what if Obama can't close the 400K voter gap, or there remains a razor thin delegate margin in June? Even though there is a lot of criticism against superdelegates, the fact is that we do not hold a national primary in this country. Instead, we have primary voters going to the polls during a six month period, during which they learn more about the candidates and make a decision at the time that they vote. And even when they vote, they're not voting for a particular candidate, but for the delegates to represent them at the convention, which is held more than eight months after the first caucus/primary contest. Because of this, I think it's very premature for an Obama supporter to say that he'd "quit the party" if the superdelegates don't support the "will of the people," because it's hard to claim a "will of the people" in the primary process. How many people who've already voted in the primary now regret their decision? What if something new transpires, or a scandal is revealed, against the "favored candidate" before the convention? Should the superdelegates vote for the candidate who received a plurality of the vote, or has a slight lead in delegates, then? And let's say that Hillary still has a slight lead in the vote total and delegate count then, but polls still show that the more liberal senator from Illinois has a better shot against McCain than Hillary, and the superdelegates decide that it's better for the party to nominate Obama in such circumstances? I'm sure under the latter scenario, Mr. Bowers would be singing a much different tune...
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Super Tuesday Results
As expected, McCain cleaned up tonight and is clearly the frontrunner on the GOP side. And given that Romney said earlier tonight that he's in this race for the long haul, one has to wonder how that's even possible after tonight. As for Huckabee, he had a decent night, and may have increased his chances of being McCain's runningmate.
On the Dem side, Hillary had a much better night than I anticipated, particularly in California. Yet, Obama did very well tonight, winning many states and delegates, kept his campaign alive, with some speculation that he may have received more delegates than Hillary tonight, though I don't know if that will hold given the margin in CA right now (55%-33% for Hillary with 17% of precincts reporting right now). But we'll just have to wait and see how the delegates are apportioned tomorrow. Whatever the outcome, I don't think the Dem race will be decided for quite a while.
On the Dem side, Hillary had a much better night than I anticipated, particularly in California. Yet, Obama did very well tonight, winning many states and delegates, kept his campaign alive, with some speculation that he may have received more delegates than Hillary tonight, though I don't know if that will hold given the margin in CA right now (55%-33% for Hillary with 17% of precincts reporting right now). But we'll just have to wait and see how the delegates are apportioned tomorrow. Whatever the outcome, I don't think the Dem race will be decided for quite a while.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Pre-Super Tuesday Results Analysis
Given that the polls didn't open in New York until noon today, I haven't voted yet but will do so as soon as I get off from work. I don't anticipate any surprises on the GOP side. Even with CA appearing to be close (which allots its delegates proportionally), other mega-states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, and Arizona, are all solidly polling for McCain and they're all winner-take-all. In the South, McCain is leading in most of the states, with Huckabee chipping votes away from Romney, as what happened in the West Virginia convention, which Huckabee won by having McCain supporters go for him in the second ballot today.
Of course, there are some on the Right who are vehemently opposed to McCain, like Rush Limbaugh, who has indicated before that he may not vote in the general election if McCain is the GOP nominee. Others, like Ann Coulter, have expressly stated that they would prefer Hillary over McCain. Frankly, I understand their frustration with McCain but I do not comprehend why they are sooo negative about him. Here's a good article about the situation. There are clearly issues where I disagree with McCain, particularly McCain-Feingold (you know, that glorious bill that was supposed to "take money out of politics," but ended up making the system worse, empowering 527s, curtailing our First Amendment rights, and producing election after election where more money has been donated and spent each year). When it came to McCain's immigration bill, I had mixed feelings. While I understand the need to come up with a solution to the problem we face involving the 12-13 million illegal aliens in this country, I also recognize the need to secure the border. That's why Rudy had the best plan of all, IMHO, which was later adopted by McCain: Secure the border first, deport the criminals, and then deal with the other illegal immigrants later. To me, that's the best way to reach a consensus on this issue. And while I first cringed at the Gang of 14 idea, it ultimately produced good results in getting conservative justices on to the Supreme Court. So, in essence, my major issue with McCain is mostly over Campaign Finance Reform, which frankly, is not a "life or death" issue for me to preclude voting for him, and with an American Conservative Union lifetime rating of 82.3%, and the best chance the GOP has in keeping the White House, it seems to me that this vehement anti-McCain sentiment by some on the Right is extremely counterproductive. Fine, your guy Romney isn't going to be the nominee. My guy, Rudy, isn't either, but do what I did: Get over it! The only other major concern I have with McCain is his age and non-eloquent speaking style. Yet, for a man who spent more than five years in the hellish Hanoi Hotel and survived, he can most certainly survive being president and gets off from having to sound "eloquent."
On the Dem side, we just might have a horse race on our hands tonight. I still think Hillary will ultimately be their nominee, and the Dems will only have themselves to blame for the outcome of that decision. When you have a young, dynamic candidate who is the most liberal senator getting praise from Republicans, building a phenomenal grassroots coalition based on change, character, and honesty, and poll numbers showing that he has the best chance to beat John McCain in the fall, and you choose the other candidate, who along with her husband, has a scandal rap sheet that runs around the block and is viewed as one of the most polarizing figures in American politics, don't complain about the results in November. In fact, let's just think hypothetically that she actually pulls it off this year and wins the presidency. Does anyone actually believe that she will help the Dems on the Hill in 2010? For me, I see a clear pathway for the GOP to make huge gains in both houses of Congress (if not take both back) in such a scenario, a la 1994. And do you reasonably believe that she could get herself reelected? Oh sure, she might, but by a slim margin, further polarizing the Clinton image and this country.
Just some thoughts to chew over before the results come in later tonight.
Of course, there are some on the Right who are vehemently opposed to McCain, like Rush Limbaugh, who has indicated before that he may not vote in the general election if McCain is the GOP nominee. Others, like Ann Coulter, have expressly stated that they would prefer Hillary over McCain. Frankly, I understand their frustration with McCain but I do not comprehend why they are sooo negative about him. Here's a good article about the situation. There are clearly issues where I disagree with McCain, particularly McCain-Feingold (you know, that glorious bill that was supposed to "take money out of politics," but ended up making the system worse, empowering 527s, curtailing our First Amendment rights, and producing election after election where more money has been donated and spent each year). When it came to McCain's immigration bill, I had mixed feelings. While I understand the need to come up with a solution to the problem we face involving the 12-13 million illegal aliens in this country, I also recognize the need to secure the border. That's why Rudy had the best plan of all, IMHO, which was later adopted by McCain: Secure the border first, deport the criminals, and then deal with the other illegal immigrants later. To me, that's the best way to reach a consensus on this issue. And while I first cringed at the Gang of 14 idea, it ultimately produced good results in getting conservative justices on to the Supreme Court. So, in essence, my major issue with McCain is mostly over Campaign Finance Reform, which frankly, is not a "life or death" issue for me to preclude voting for him, and with an American Conservative Union lifetime rating of 82.3%, and the best chance the GOP has in keeping the White House, it seems to me that this vehement anti-McCain sentiment by some on the Right is extremely counterproductive. Fine, your guy Romney isn't going to be the nominee. My guy, Rudy, isn't either, but do what I did: Get over it! The only other major concern I have with McCain is his age and non-eloquent speaking style. Yet, for a man who spent more than five years in the hellish Hanoi Hotel and survived, he can most certainly survive being president and gets off from having to sound "eloquent."
On the Dem side, we just might have a horse race on our hands tonight. I still think Hillary will ultimately be their nominee, and the Dems will only have themselves to blame for the outcome of that decision. When you have a young, dynamic candidate who is the most liberal senator getting praise from Republicans, building a phenomenal grassroots coalition based on change, character, and honesty, and poll numbers showing that he has the best chance to beat John McCain in the fall, and you choose the other candidate, who along with her husband, has a scandal rap sheet that runs around the block and is viewed as one of the most polarizing figures in American politics, don't complain about the results in November. In fact, let's just think hypothetically that she actually pulls it off this year and wins the presidency. Does anyone actually believe that she will help the Dems on the Hill in 2010? For me, I see a clear pathway for the GOP to make huge gains in both houses of Congress (if not take both back) in such a scenario, a la 1994. And do you reasonably believe that she could get herself reelected? Oh sure, she might, but by a slim margin, further polarizing the Clinton image and this country.
Just some thoughts to chew over before the results come in later tonight.
Super Tuesday!
Remember that today is Super Tuesday, so please go out to vote! Polls are open from 12pm to 9pm at your regular polling site.
Also, if you haven't already read my interview with Congressman Kuhl, click here!
Also, if you haven't already read my interview with Congressman Kuhl, click here!
Saturday, February 2, 2008
NH Trip Makes the Paper
As you know, the weekend before the New Hampshire primary, a group of us from Ontario and Cayuga counties went up there to volunteer on Rudy's campaign. Here's the story from the Daily Messenger, which came out yesterday.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Breaking News: Kuhl Endorses McCain
And with that, I'll also report that I, too, have decided to vote for John McCain next Tuesday. As Drudge would say, developing...UPDATE: More on the endorsement from the Star-Gazette.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Well That Was Quick
So I was about to go to bed, when I saw I had a new email message in my inbox. It was from somebody high up in the McCain campaign, expressing his condolences and saying, "Rudy is a class act (and tremendous on taxes). Very good speech (though Mitt was incredibly rude to interrupt)." It's personal communications like these that will certainly help in making my decision on who I'm going to support now, hint, hint.
Florida Results
Fox News and AP have just called the race in Florida for McCain, with McCain beating Romney by about 5 points with 62% of precincts reporting. In addition, Mark Halperin of Time Magazine is reporting that Rudy may endorse McCain as early as tomorrow.
Naturally, I'm very disappointed with the results, as anyone would be sad that their chosen candidate, who you've campaigned for, blogged for, and donated money to, didn't win. Rudy inspired me like no other candidate. I looked past his views on social issues because of his marvelous record in NYC and his leadership on 9/11. Once he promised that he would appoint conservative judges, he sealed my support. Rudy will always have my admiration and support in his future endeavours. And who knows where the road leads him. In just two short years, a fairly unpopular governor from New York will be up for reelection, so who knows...
Yet, tomorrow's another day, and there's still several Republican candidates to choose from, all with strong records and resumes. If, as reported, Rudy does drop out tomorrow, I will have to go through the process of selecting another candidate to vote for next Tuesday. Just for fun, I took one of those online presidential candidate selectors tonight, and here are my results for the top four candidates still left in the GOP field:
68% - Mike Huckabee
58% - Mitt Romney
55% - John McCain
33% - Ron Paul
Of course, other factors will also play a large role in my decision making, such as electability and endorsements. Right now, the polls show that McCain is the best candidate to beat either Hillary or Obama. Plus, if he receives Rudy's endorsement tomorrow, on top of his endorsement from Sam Brownback (who is actually the closest to me ideologically), that will increase points in McCain's column for me. However, I'm still in the process of making my decision. Ironically, for someone who has never understood the "undecided voter" (I always know who I'm voting for weeks, if not months, in advance), I'm now an undecided voter with less than one week to make up my mind. Certainly an election year like no other!
Naturally, I'm very disappointed with the results, as anyone would be sad that their chosen candidate, who you've campaigned for, blogged for, and donated money to, didn't win. Rudy inspired me like no other candidate. I looked past his views on social issues because of his marvelous record in NYC and his leadership on 9/11. Once he promised that he would appoint conservative judges, he sealed my support. Rudy will always have my admiration and support in his future endeavours. And who knows where the road leads him. In just two short years, a fairly unpopular governor from New York will be up for reelection, so who knows...
Yet, tomorrow's another day, and there's still several Republican candidates to choose from, all with strong records and resumes. If, as reported, Rudy does drop out tomorrow, I will have to go through the process of selecting another candidate to vote for next Tuesday. Just for fun, I took one of those online presidential candidate selectors tonight, and here are my results for the top four candidates still left in the GOP field:
68% - Mike Huckabee
58% - Mitt Romney
55% - John McCain
33% - Ron Paul
Of course, other factors will also play a large role in my decision making, such as electability and endorsements. Right now, the polls show that McCain is the best candidate to beat either Hillary or Obama. Plus, if he receives Rudy's endorsement tomorrow, on top of his endorsement from Sam Brownback (who is actually the closest to me ideologically), that will increase points in McCain's column for me. However, I'm still in the process of making my decision. Ironically, for someone who has never understood the "undecided voter" (I always know who I'm voting for weeks, if not months, in advance), I'm now an undecided voter with less than one week to make up my mind. Certainly an election year like no other!
SOTU, Earmark Reform, and Florida
Last night, President Bush gave his State of the Union address, and it was nice to see a familiar face like Congressman Kuhl in the gallery. Here are Congressman Kuhl's thoughts on the SOTU and Bush's legacy.
Prior to the speech, Congressman Kuhl wrote a post on his blog about earmark reform, an issue mentioned a bit in the SOTU, asking Democrats to join Republicans in this effort.
Finally, I thought I'd give my thoughts on the Florida primary before the results come in later tonight. It goes without saying that the polls aren't looking too favorably for Rudy right now, with each day showing that either McCain or Romney has the edge for first place. The results are going to be close, so I'm prepared for a long night. A lot of early votes were cast in this race, which certainly helps Rudy, and I would love for him to pull it off tonight, though I've prepared myself for a defeat. We shall see (and keep cross our fingers)...
Prior to the speech, Congressman Kuhl wrote a post on his blog about earmark reform, an issue mentioned a bit in the SOTU, asking Democrats to join Republicans in this effort.
Finally, I thought I'd give my thoughts on the Florida primary before the results come in later tonight. It goes without saying that the polls aren't looking too favorably for Rudy right now, with each day showing that either McCain or Romney has the edge for first place. The results are going to be close, so I'm prepared for a long night. A lot of early votes were cast in this race, which certainly helps Rudy, and I would love for him to pull it off tonight, though I've prepared myself for a defeat. We shall see (and keep cross our fingers)...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Conservatives Against McCain, For Rudy
As you know, many prominent conservatives, including Rush Limbaugh and George Will, have been making the case over and over again against John McCain as the Republican nominee, with Rush going as far as saying that Rudy, Romney, and Thompson are the only candidates in this race who are trying to continue "the conservative tradition."
So it should come as no surprise to see a conservative columnist like Dennis Prager or an objectivist like Robert Tracinski coming out for Rudy one week before the Florida primary.
So it should come as no surprise to see a conservative columnist like Dennis Prager or an objectivist like Robert Tracinski coming out for Rudy one week before the Florida primary.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Nevada, South Carolina Results
Romney's win today showed that he was smart to back out of South Carolina and campaign hard in Nevada this week, where according to the exit polls, 25% of the caucus-goers there are Mormon and 94% of them voted Romney. One thing that I have not seen played up at all is that McCain finished in third place, with 13% of the vote, in a state that borders his own...
In South Carolina, I was hoping that Huckabee would beat McCain to slow the Senator's momentum going into Florida, but with a three percent margin of victory for McCain, there is no question in my mind that Huckabee would have won South Carolina but for Fred Thompson staking his whole candidacy in this state, taking many votes away from Huckabee.
But now it comes down to Florida, and the Giuliani campaign is up for the fight. Here's a statement from Tony Carbonetti, Rudy's senior political advisor, which contrasts Rudy's views on taxes with the other candidates:
In South Carolina, I was hoping that Huckabee would beat McCain to slow the Senator's momentum going into Florida, but with a three percent margin of victory for McCain, there is no question in my mind that Huckabee would have won South Carolina but for Fred Thompson staking his whole candidacy in this state, taking many votes away from Huckabee.
But now it comes down to Florida, and the Giuliani campaign is up for the fight. Here's a statement from Tony Carbonetti, Rudy's senior political advisor, which contrasts Rudy's views on taxes with the other candidates:
We congratulate Senator John McCain on winning the South Carolina primary. While the race remains wide open, we welcome the candidates to Florida for a real discussion of the issues we've been talking about since day one. Florida voters know that in a field where one candidate twice voted against the Bush tax cuts and another wasn't even sure they were a good idea, Rudy is the only candidate who has a record of cutting taxes, a plan for the largest tax cut in modern American history, and a proven ability to jumpstart the economy.
Friday, January 18, 2008
ATR Releases Presidential Candidate Tax Reform Matrix
Today, Americans for Tax Reform released a "Presidential Candidate Tax Matrix", which serves as a quick reference guide for all of the major presidential candidates' positions on taxes. According to ATR President Grover Norquist, "When taxpayers go into the voting booth to decide who the best pro-taxpayer candidate is, this guide will save time and energy." And the matrix clearly shows that Rudy Giuliani has supported the most pro-growth tax reforms of all the major presidential candidates.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Rudy At His Best
Hillary can cry all she wants to, but this is the type of unscripted moment that makes one look truly presidential:
It's moments like these that remind me of where I was on 9/11 and why I strongly support Rudy for president. I was in DC at the time, starting my junior year of college. Back in those days, I had the luxury of staying up at all hours of the night and sleeping in the next day, so since I had a 10:00 am class, I decided to sleep in, when I got a call around 9:00 am from a friend telling me that a plane had hit the World Trade Center. I immediately turned on the news to see what happened, and one of the first scenes I saw was of Mayor Giuliani at Ground Zero, taking immediate control of the situation. I remember seeing him looking out for one of his aides and scolding him for not wearing his mask, but if I recall correctly, the Mayor didn't seem to keep his mask on as much given that he had to take command. Moments later, NBC turned to its Pentagon correspondent, who immediately informed them about a loud "boom" he heard outside and that the complex was being evacuated. Classes hadn't been cancelled yet, so I walked to my class (which was a religion course taught by a wonderful DeSales-Oblate), and before our professor arrived, all of us were talking about the rumors we heard going on in DC: "they bombed the Capitol building," "a bomb was found at the Mall," etc. Our professor always started class with a short prayer, but the prayer that day lasted at least 10 minutes, which certainly helped and calmed us, after which we discussed the day's events. We received word that classes were cancelled a short time later, and as I walked back to my dorm, I could see the smoke billowing from the Pentagon, which was just a few short miles away. I spent the rest of the day, as most people, watching the news and seeing Mayor Giuliani lead us all through the crisis. The next few weeks, we saw the Mayor go through the struggle of attending countless funerals, hugging the loved ones of 9/11 victims, and helping this nation heal. This video certainly brought me back to those days, showcasing Rudy's leadership, kindness and warmth.
A quick note about the protester: From those at the podium, it appeared he was protesting the war, when he was in fact a pro-life protester. As a pro-lifer who has participated in the March for Life, I was truly disgusted by this display. When the mother of a fallen soldier takes the stage to speak about her son, who sacrificed his life for our country, you do not heckle her about Rudy's position on abortion. I'm not saying that pro-lifers shouldn't exercise their First Amendment rights, but this was clearly neither the time nor the place for such a demonstration. Also, as a retort to the protester on Rudy's views, here's my take on the issue.
It's moments like these that remind me of where I was on 9/11 and why I strongly support Rudy for president. I was in DC at the time, starting my junior year of college. Back in those days, I had the luxury of staying up at all hours of the night and sleeping in the next day, so since I had a 10:00 am class, I decided to sleep in, when I got a call around 9:00 am from a friend telling me that a plane had hit the World Trade Center. I immediately turned on the news to see what happened, and one of the first scenes I saw was of Mayor Giuliani at Ground Zero, taking immediate control of the situation. I remember seeing him looking out for one of his aides and scolding him for not wearing his mask, but if I recall correctly, the Mayor didn't seem to keep his mask on as much given that he had to take command. Moments later, NBC turned to its Pentagon correspondent, who immediately informed them about a loud "boom" he heard outside and that the complex was being evacuated. Classes hadn't been cancelled yet, so I walked to my class (which was a religion course taught by a wonderful DeSales-Oblate), and before our professor arrived, all of us were talking about the rumors we heard going on in DC: "they bombed the Capitol building," "a bomb was found at the Mall," etc. Our professor always started class with a short prayer, but the prayer that day lasted at least 10 minutes, which certainly helped and calmed us, after which we discussed the day's events. We received word that classes were cancelled a short time later, and as I walked back to my dorm, I could see the smoke billowing from the Pentagon, which was just a few short miles away. I spent the rest of the day, as most people, watching the news and seeing Mayor Giuliani lead us all through the crisis. The next few weeks, we saw the Mayor go through the struggle of attending countless funerals, hugging the loved ones of 9/11 victims, and helping this nation heal. This video certainly brought me back to those days, showcasing Rudy's leadership, kindness and warmth.
A quick note about the protester: From those at the podium, it appeared he was protesting the war, when he was in fact a pro-life protester. As a pro-lifer who has participated in the March for Life, I was truly disgusted by this display. When the mother of a fallen soldier takes the stage to speak about her son, who sacrificed his life for our country, you do not heckle her about Rudy's position on abortion. I'm not saying that pro-lifers shouldn't exercise their First Amendment rights, but this was clearly neither the time nor the place for such a demonstration. Also, as a retort to the protester on Rudy's views, here's my take on the issue.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Michigan Results
With about 10% of precincts reporting and Romney up by 6 points, both Fox and NBC just called the MI race for Romney, who essentially had to win tonight to have any shot at winning the nomination. It's one thing to lose a state that borders your current home where you were governor, but quite another to lose in a state where you were born and raised and where your own father was governor.
I predict that this result will end McCain's NH bounce, which came at Rudy's expense. Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics put it best, posting the following a few hours ago after the exit polls were released:
I predict that this result will end McCain's NH bounce, which came at Rudy's expense. Tom Bevan of RealClearPolitics put it best, posting the following a few hours ago after the exit polls were released:
How does the saying go? Once an accident, twice a coincidence, three times a trend. If Romney wins tonight we'll have three different winners in the first three primary states (no offense, Wyoming) which means the only thing consistent about this year's Republican race thus far is chaos - and that makes Rudy Giuliani one very happy camper.It also makes his supporters happy campers too!
"Giuliani -- Still Very Much In It"
From the WaPo blog, The Fix. Money quote:
The truth of the matter is that the fundamentals that Giuliani needed to be in place to have a chance at the nomination remain. The GOP field is muddled, the wealthy candidate could be out of the race as early as Tuesday, and it is clear that Florida's primary will matter. The stories of an alleged fundraising shortfall have the potential to gum up the works for Giuliani, but it now seems likely that he will have the chance his campaign has long hoped for: To have a win in Florida mean something.
Monday, January 14, 2008
The Rudy "Strategery"
For months now, I've written several posts on Rudy's big-state "strategery" and how it was the most effective one given the (a) delegate math; (b) new, front-loaded primary schedule; and (c) lack of a clear primary challenger against him. National Review columnist Rich Lowery, a Romney backer, offers his thoughts on it here.
I'll admit that I've been feeling frustrated these last few days, something I should have prepared myself for earlier knowing that Rudy was putting much of his hopes on winning Florida and backing away from the earlier states, so seeing Candidate A or B winning the first few contests and seeing Rudy slip in the polls hasn't been fun. On the other hand, I refuse to think that the sky is falling for Rudy in such a scrambled race at this point, given how all the talking heads have been proven so wrong. After Hillary's loss in Iowa, the MSM was already gearing up to write (and in some cases, did write) her political obit. Even her own campaign was spinning about her upcoming loss last Tuesday, and yet she still won in New Hampshire. After Romney lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, the conventional wisdom (which even I speculated) was that he was done for, and now he has a slight lead in the polls against McCain in Michigan, with the voters going to the polls later today. Heck, as of last summer, everyone was saying that McCain's campaign was over, and in September, Thompson looked like to be the Savior of the GOP to some. Frankly, it's been decades since both parties have had such topsy-turvy primary races.
Right now, the RCP average in Florida shows a dead heat between Rudy and McCain, with McCain obviously receiving a nice bounce from his win last week, and it goes without question that McCain's bounce is at Rudy's expense, as Huckabee's bounce was at Romney's and Thompson's expense. However, we still have two weeks to go between now and Florida, with Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina all between. From all of the relatives and friends I know in Florida, they all tell me that the only ads they're seeing down there are for Rudy, which certainly bodes well for the former mayor as all the other candidates are splitting their ads and money between two to three states. If McCain loses or comes in close tomorrow in Michigan, his bounce will surely end, and if he does manage to win by a good margin tomorrow, his old adversaries will surely come back to haunt him. Granted, I'm not a big fan of fellow party members viciously attacking any GOP candidates, as any one of them could be the nominee, and whoever that is, the party should come behind him and do everything it can to help him win in November (Note: There is a difference in promoting your candidate of choice and showcasing the other's policy differences and/or potential weaknesses, but not to the point of completely trashing them, as frankly, all of the major GOP candidates would be far better than Hillary or Obama). But, because of all the dynamics and possibilities, plus "front-runner" backlash, this race remains very much wide open, and that's exactly where Rudy's campaign wants it in the run up to Florida. As I always say, we shall see...
UPDATE: Clips like these certainly keep my hopes up:
UPDATE 2: Jon Voight, one of my favorite actors of all time, endorsed Rudy today!
I'll admit that I've been feeling frustrated these last few days, something I should have prepared myself for earlier knowing that Rudy was putting much of his hopes on winning Florida and backing away from the earlier states, so seeing Candidate A or B winning the first few contests and seeing Rudy slip in the polls hasn't been fun. On the other hand, I refuse to think that the sky is falling for Rudy in such a scrambled race at this point, given how all the talking heads have been proven so wrong. After Hillary's loss in Iowa, the MSM was already gearing up to write (and in some cases, did write) her political obit. Even her own campaign was spinning about her upcoming loss last Tuesday, and yet she still won in New Hampshire. After Romney lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, the conventional wisdom (which even I speculated) was that he was done for, and now he has a slight lead in the polls against McCain in Michigan, with the voters going to the polls later today. Heck, as of last summer, everyone was saying that McCain's campaign was over, and in September, Thompson looked like to be the Savior of the GOP to some. Frankly, it's been decades since both parties have had such topsy-turvy primary races.
Right now, the RCP average in Florida shows a dead heat between Rudy and McCain, with McCain obviously receiving a nice bounce from his win last week, and it goes without question that McCain's bounce is at Rudy's expense, as Huckabee's bounce was at Romney's and Thompson's expense. However, we still have two weeks to go between now and Florida, with Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina all between. From all of the relatives and friends I know in Florida, they all tell me that the only ads they're seeing down there are for Rudy, which certainly bodes well for the former mayor as all the other candidates are splitting their ads and money between two to three states. If McCain loses or comes in close tomorrow in Michigan, his bounce will surely end, and if he does manage to win by a good margin tomorrow, his old adversaries will surely come back to haunt him. Granted, I'm not a big fan of fellow party members viciously attacking any GOP candidates, as any one of them could be the nominee, and whoever that is, the party should come behind him and do everything it can to help him win in November (Note: There is a difference in promoting your candidate of choice and showcasing the other's policy differences and/or potential weaknesses, but not to the point of completely trashing them, as frankly, all of the major GOP candidates would be far better than Hillary or Obama). But, because of all the dynamics and possibilities, plus "front-runner" backlash, this race remains very much wide open, and that's exactly where Rudy's campaign wants it in the run up to Florida. As I always say, we shall see...
UPDATE: Clips like these certainly keep my hopes up:
UPDATE 2: Jon Voight, one of my favorite actors of all time, endorsed Rudy today!
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
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