The Kaiser Poll on SCHIP

So the comments section is abuzz that I should talk about this poll on SCHIP expansion conducted by the liberal "non-partisan" folks over at NPR, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard.

The Fighting 29th offers the following highlights:

When asked about the possibility of S-CHIP leading to people dropping private insurance, 65% said still favored S-CHIP expansion. 64% said they supported the veto override, and 52% said they weren't concerned about S-CHIP expansion leading to government-run health care. 35% said they would be less likely to support their Member of Congress if he or she voted to sustain the veto.

What he doesn't mention is that the "non-partisan" Kaiser Family Foundation is extremely involved in promoting SCHIP expansion, which makes them much more vested in the outcome of this debate than USA Today/Gallup and, therefore, makes its poll results appear rather dubious.

Second, just look at the party affiliation of the polling sample:

22. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what?
34 Democrat
23 Republican
35 Independent
3 Something else
3 Don’t know
2 Refused

23. Do you lean more towards the: (Democratic) or (Republican) Party?
Leaned Party Table based on total
51 Democrat/Leaned Democrat
33 Republican/Leaned Republican
10 Non-Lean Independent
1 Something else
3 Don’t know
1 Refused

Now I know that 2006 was not a banner year for Republicans, but no one can tell me with a serious face that only 23% of Americans consider themselves Republicans, and certainly no one can claim that 51% of Americans "lean" Democrat. If that's the case, how did any Republican survive last fall?

Yet, let's suspend reality for a second and believe this poll and its national percentages for party affiliation. How do these numbers apply to New York's 29th Congressional district when, according to the latest voter registration figures from the New York State Board of Elections, over 45% of registered voters in the district are either Republicans or Conservatives? That's nearly double the number of people than the sample in the Kaiser poll who think of themselves as Republicans, which begs the question: Speaking strictly of Congressman Kuhl's re-election and the opinions of his constituents on SCHIP expansion, what would the Kaiser polling results be if their party affiliation sample mirrored those of the NY 29th?

I have a feeling that the Fighting 29th wouldn't like the results of that kinda poll...