NH Trip Makes the Paper

As you know, the weekend before the New Hampshire primary, a group of us from Ontario and Cayuga counties went up there to volunteer on Rudy's campaign. Here's the story from the Daily Messenger, which came out yesterday.

The NH Election Night Speeches

After all the excitement and positives things said about Obama's and Huckabee's victory speeches in Iowa on Thursday, here are my thoughts on tonight's speeches:

Romney: He seemed very upbeat, even though at the time he made his concession speech, he was down about 9 points (he eventually catched up to McCain, down only by 5 points right now). He is a very good speaker, very eloquent, and I can understand why people are appealed to him. But if it wasn't for his flips and flops and such negative tone in this race, he might actually be leading at this point. Instead, you get him, in good 'ol Olympic fashion, talking about his two "silver place" finishes and him taking the "gold" in that all important primary state: Wyoming!

McCain: Boy did his age show tonight! He wins NH, keeps his campaign alive, and he bored me. Now, I'm a big Rudy supporter, no question about it, but one of the main reasons (aside from the issues) is that every time he speaks, I'm on the edge of my seat. I do have misgivings with McCain, but his life story inspires me and I would naturally support him (or any of the other GOP candidates) if he ultimately wins the primary. Yet, if he wins the primary, he has to generate excitement to win in the end, and tonight's speech didn't do it for me. And with NH proving that a win in IA doesn't translate into a win in other states, and with his lack of resources at this time, he's going to have to be more inspiring than he was tonight.

Edwards: Why is he still in the race? How does he inspire people? He has always come across to me as a complete and utter phony. The Southern charm shtick just doesn't work for me.

Obama: Truly the best speech of the night, and it came after a stunning loss. I hardly agree with him on any issue (though he is good on pork spending), but he definitely inspires people. My only concern is how long can he keep this "change" momentum up? It worked in Iowa, but after a certain point, he'll need to start being much more specific, and as he details his positions on more issues, people will ultimately realize just how liberal he is. In fact, most of the criticism about his unspecified "change" sounds just like Russell Kirk's sixth tenet of conservative thought: "Recognition that change may not be salutary reform: hasty innovation may be a devouring conflagration, rather than a torch of progress. Society must alter, for prudent change is the means of social preservation; but a statesman must take Providence into his calculations, and a statesman's chief virtue, according to Plato and Burke, is prudence." Nevertheless, his speeches do work much more effectively when he's not so issue-oriented, i.e., laundry list proposals don't inspire most people, and actually appear to be very similar to Ronald Reagan's style, who of course was the "Great Communicator."

Hillary: Please, please, please, let me NOT have to listen to this for four years. For all of her husband's failings, he was certainly a great speaker. You knew he was lying through his teeth, but at least you wouldn't mind talking one-on-one with the guy at your local bar. Hillary is certainly the anti-Obama speech-wise, doing a short laundry list tonight and in most of her other speeches. And tonight, I was not inspired at all. It was all "me, me, ME" and not enough "you, you, YOU" as Obama's speech was tonight.

NH: Mid-Counting Analysis

Shocked doesn't begin to describe how I feel about the results coming in tonight. Right now, Hillary is beating Obama by 3 points, and the AP just called this race for Hillary. While McCain was projected the winner earlier this evening, Romney has closed the gap to 6 points at this time. I won't do the "Winners and Losers" feature as I did with the Iowa Caucus results, since everything has been turned upside down at this point. But I will note one HUGE loser: the MSM and their opinion polls. While the GOP race is somewhat mirroring the weekend polls (so much for that "late Romney surge"), the MSM blew it in the Dem race. It was wall-to-wall Obama coverage since Thursday, with all the polls showing him with very large leads. Early reports today stated that the Dems were running out of ballots, and since Obama was projected to win the independents, that was an early indication of another big Obama victory tonight. Because of this, many, including myself, predicted that Obama would win by a double-digit margin in NH.

But one thing is certain: Both races remain wide open, with no single "frontrunner" in either race.

NH: Pre-Results Analysis

With the polls about to close in a few hours, I thought I'd offer some pre-results analysis of the race. During the weekend in NH, I thought McCain would edge out Romney in NH. Even though I saw far more signage for Romney on the ground, I thought his loss in IA, coupled with more people knowing about his constant flip-flops, would get the better of him. But with (a) the latest polls showing that McCain has plateaued, i.e., he started the weekend with around a 6 point lead but now has dropped to a 3.6 lead over Romney, with the latest poll showing Romney beating McCain by 3 points (though this is the only poll that has Romney up); (b) Romney's performance in the Fox News roundtable on Sunday night; and (c) the fact that independent voter turnout in the Dem primary caused them to run out of ballots earlier today, while McCain needs the independent vote, suggests to me that McCain won't have the big night that most people projected, and may in fact fall short to Romney. Bob Novak also sees Romney "rallying" in NH these last couple of days.

However, even if McCain wins tonight, he still doesn't have the money to compete effectively elsewhere, using up most of his resources in New Hampshire after several months of poor fundraising. I think McCain has to win big in NH, over 5%, in order to compete effectively against Romney in Michigan. And if he loses tonight, his campaign is, for all intents and purposes, over.

As for where Rudy stands, I'm sure his campaign would prefer a Romney victory tonight. Not because they prefer him over McCain (far from it), but because they believe (correctly) that most of McCain's supporters would choose Rudy over the other candidates if McCain drops out, and the sooner, the better.

I'm thinking the Republican race will be close, less than a 3% margin. The more this race scatters in the early states, the better for Rudy in the long run.

UPDATE: I forgot to mention what I thought of the Dem race. Obama, by 12!

Huge Turnout: NH Running Out of Ballots

Well, Drudge has the siren out, so we all know this is big! While most people's first thoughts on this will be "Obama-mania" (which it is), my first thought was that this is yet another reason to move to electronic voting machines. I know, some of you will say (panting), "But, OR, we can't, we just CAN'T, evildoers could rig the machines, voter fraud, AHHH!" So I guess we'll just have to stay with the current system in most places of the country, because polling places running out of ballots is far better for democracy than going electronic.

Regardless, if the Dems are running out of ballots, I predict that Obama will have another huge win tonight. In addition, this also shows that far more independents are voting in the Dem primary than the Republican one, indicating to me that McCain, who is depending on the independent vote, will not have as great of a night as most people are predicting. But we shall see...

Campaigning in NH this Weekend for Rudy

Tomorrow morning, a group of Ontario County Republicans, including myself, will be travelling to the Granite State to campaign for Rudy, arriving back late Sunday night. I'm very excited to see firsthand what it's like in New Hampshire just days before the primary, and I'm sure a great time will be had by all.